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Details

How Will Increasing Debt Levels Impact Bitcoin’s Price?

Debt is often compared to being a double-edged sword. Countries can borrow money to stimulate growth and large internal projects, affording their citizens a better economy to accumulate wealth and a higher quality of living. However, this debt comes with interest, and many countries end up in a vicious cycle of borrowing or printing more money to pay off their debts. 

The more money a country borrows, the more it has to pay back in the future. This means future generations will end up having to pay off the interest of debt borrowed in the past, reducing their ability to spend money on things they really need. 

The more of its own currency a country prints, the less purchasing power that currency will have (inflation.) The U.S. annual inflation rate rose to 2.1% in 2019.

While large economies such as the U.S. can borrow in their own currency, small-medium sized economies are oftentimes forced to borrow in foreign currency. This makes the debt problem even worse, since, while the U.S. can print more USD to service the debt, medium-small foreign countries cannot print more USD/EUR/CHF. Therefore their currencies generally suffer even larger depreciations in case of rising debt levels. 

How serious are increasing debt levels?

The rapidly growing national debt has been a hot topic of conversation for the past decade, and Satoshi Nakamoto actually created BTC as an escape from the too-powerful influence of centralized financial organizations and central banks on people’s livelihood. 

With a total population of about 32 million people, the impact of a minority of Venezuelans flocking to Bitcoin likely won’t have an immense effect on the price of the asset. However, if a country with a larger population with citizens willing and capable of purchasing significant quantities of BTC, the impact would be much more substantial  

In a Joint Economic Committee in November 2019, the Chair of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, noted that U.S. national debt is growing faster than U.S. nominal GDP, a strong indicator that there may be an economic downturn ahead.

U..S. debt is north of $23 trillion, roughly $70,000 per citizen, and the debt-to-GDP ratio is at 106%, trying the previous highest debt-to-GDP during WW2. 

Debt Levels and Bitcoin’s Price

It’s relatively difficult to draw any final and direct conclusions of how any specific variable, such as increasing debt levels, will impact Bitcoin’s price. However, it’s worth mapping  (albeit simplifying) any relationship as a function of supply and demand.

The demand for any currency alternative tends to skyrocket in the wake of rampant inflation of a local fiat currency. Most countries in the West haven’t experienced extreme capital flights, but it’s not an uncommon occurrence in more economically turbulent countries. 

For example, the overall inflation rate has increased to a staggering 53,798,500% since 2016, and many Venezuelans have sought cryptocurrency as a means to protect their fiat assets from essentially evaporating. 

The more people that want to purchase Bitcoin, especially so for the sake of holding onto the digital asset, the more the price will increase, provided the supply of sellers stays consistent. 

With a total population of about 32 million people, the impact of a minority of Venezuelans flocking to Bitcoin likely won’t have an immense effect on the price of the asset. However, if a country with a larger population with citizens willing and capable of purchasing significant quantities of BTC, the impact would be much more substantial.  

For example, Bitcoin lingered around $4,000 for the first few months of 2019, but then swelled towards the $13,000 range in July. This growth happened in parallel to China devaluing its yuan as a response to U.S. tariffs amid the backdrop of the rising tension of the US-China trade war. 

Bitcoin also saw a 10% jump in price within the week following the US assassination of Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani. This jump was credited to international uncertainty, but also to many Iranians purchasing BTC as a hedge for the risk of the US imposing severe economic sanctions on Iran. 

Final Thoughts

Since Bitcoin is a relatively nascent asset class, we don’t have the benefit of a wide range of historical data to understand how debt levels impact its price. However, given the recent history and Bitcoin’s fundamental properties, we can hypothesize how Bitcoin markets could respond to the future potential rising of sovereign debt levels. 

There can only be 21,000,000 Bitcoin, 18,155,012 of which are already in the market. The stable supply and fixed hard cap make it an asset that shines in comparison to malleable fiat currencies, which are prone to political risk.

Debt levels are expected to increase across the board, and higher inflation will inevitably tag along for the ride. Bitcoin, however, will remain stable in its supply and offer a digital alternative to the millions of fiat holders around the world. It’s no surprise Bitcoin has a reputation for being “the people’s” currency, emerging store of value, and hedge for large global economic risks. 

Sources:

This article is originally published in Albaron Ventures


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COVID-19: Some Myth Busters from World Health Organization (WHO) Stay away from rumors

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Beware of Fake News and Fake Messages on Social Media

Always follow websites of traditional media outlets whether newspapers, magazines,Television News Channels or Radio Stations and authentic online only media outlets.They still maintain journalism excellence and stress on reportorial talent.On the other hand, fake news websites run by people with non journalism background and promote their own ideology with fake news and disinformations and obviously conspiracy theories.

But unfortunately mainstream media also manipulates news to establish their story angle.There were various instances when News papers and TV Channels promoted fake news/conspiracy theories in the form of out of context or manipulated pictures/videos and distorted informations.

Always check the URL of any website.Some fake news websites look like the orginal and popular one the same layout,Logo but if you check the URL you may find extra words like if the orginal website's URL is www.xxx.com the duplicate one might be www.xxx.com.co or something like that so first check the URL for authentic informations.

Check whether photos are original or photoshopped.Check Google images for authenticity.You can find help from Google Reverse Images search.

Check the news sources from other websites whether they picked up the story or not.

Whether the website layout is little bit clumsy and obviously grammatical mistakes and spelling mistakes.

Follow official websites relating to COVID-19

WHO Clarifies the disinformation about the virus: 
COVID-19 virus can be transmitted in areas with hot and humid climates
Cold Weather and Snow can not kill the new coronavirus
Taking a Hot Bath Does Not Prevent COVID-19
COVID-19 Can not be transmitted through mosquito bites

Spraying alcohol or chlorine all over your body will not kill viruses that have already entered your body. Spraying such substances can be harmful to clothes or mucous membranes (i.e. eyes, mouth)

According to World Health Organization (WHO): Regularly and thoroughly clean your hands with an alcohol-based hand rub or wash them with soap and water

Maintain at least 1 metre (3 feet) distance between yourself and anyone who is coughing or sneezing.

Avoid touching eyes, nose and mouth . If you have fever, cough and difficulty breathing, seek medical care early

Stay at home if you begin to feel unwell, even with mild symptoms such as headache and slight runny nose, until you recover.

If you develop fever, cough and difficulty breathing, seek medical advice promptly as this may be due to a respiratory infection or other serious condition

Follow WHO guidelines www.who.int

When you follow COVID-19 related news and messages from social media then check and recheck it before consuming it.Follow journalism mantra: if your mother says she loves you, check it out.

Most of the messages or informations quote different organizations like WHO, UNICEF, UNDP,Cambridge University  or other well known institutes ,organizations or individual.Check official websites of these organizations  if stories are repeated there

Forwarding messages from unknown sources or little known sources  then it would be better to ignore it.

Check whether any logo like UNICEF or WHO or other organizations used in the messages which look similar to original logo.

These type of messages are full of Grammatical mistakes and spelling mistakes which are quite uncommon in original messages.

Don't rely on social media messages that the lockdown will last for more than 3 months. Check any related information only on Government Web Portals and social media platforms of various Government Agencies.

Some fake messages pretend to be real one like unofficial Twitter handle of international media organizations like BBC,CNN,Washinton Post, New York Times-check the official Twitter handles of media outlets.

You can identify fake messages if the message requests you to share it.

Beware of Fake News or Fake Photos/Videos Relating to Communal Hatred 

Always check the fact checking sites if you have some doubts about the authenticity of any information or picture.

www.boomlive.in

www.altnews.in

https://check4spam.com

https://smhoaxslayer.com

www.factchecker.in

www.allsides.com

www.factcheck.org

www.newsbusters.org

www.politifact.com

www.snopes.com

www.propublica.org

The Same Method Applies to You Tube Videos Check the Source the credibility of the Source.To Check Fake You Tube Videos Check and Recheck the sources. Does the person have the legal right to the video posted? Did that person capture the video? Whether it has been altered?

But due to advancement of technology we can not really wipe out fake news.According to experts advent of  Artificial Intelligence(AI) some companies small or big one developing  technologies that can  lay digitally created script to anybody's voice  even words,sentences never said by the person.Even they are developing a technology which can create fake video footage,images,audios like originals.So be cautious! Rumour-mongers are active everywhere whether in physical world or cyber world.

For any further information relating to fake news and how-to search authentic information write to us info@crimeandmoreworld.com

Read the COVID-19 Conspiracy Theories

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