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Third time Unlikely to be a Charm as Armenia and Azerbaijan Agree to Another Ceasefire

The new agreement was brokered in Washington, where the conflict has been increasingly occupying senior officials, including President Trump.

Joshua Kucera/Eurasianet

President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev Addressing the Nation (Photo Courtesy: president.az)

Armenia and Azerbaijan have agreed on a third ceasefire in as many weeks, and given the failure of the first two to stop the fighting hopes were slim that this one would have much of an effect, either.

The new ceasefire was agreed on October 25 under the mediation of the United States, where the foreign ministers of both warring countries have been meeting with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and other American officials, as well as with one another.

The two sides “reaffirmed their countries’ commitment to implement and abide by the humanitarian ceasefire agreed in Moscow on October 10,” the State Department statement read. That humanitarian ceasefire was intended to allow the two sides to exchange prisoners and bodies of killed soldiers. No such exchange has taken place as the fighting has continued.

With some exceptions, though, the violence does seem to have moved away from more populated areas following the first signing of the ceasefire. The fighting is now concentrated in the mostly empty territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh that have been occupied by Armenian forces for more than a quarter century but which are increasingly coming under Azerbaijani control.

The fighting is by far the bloodiest since the two sides fought a war in the 1990s. The Armenian side has reported more than 900 killed in action, while the Azerbaijanis have not been releasing military casualty numbers. Russian President Vladimir Putin said on October 22 that “more than 2,000” on each side had been killed.

Within minutes after the ceasefire was to go into effect, 8 am in the Caucasus on October 26, both sides were already accusing one another of breaking it. Azerbaijan’s Defense Ministry tweeted at 8:03 am that Armenia had already violated the ceasefire, then deleted the tweet and issued a new one saying that the violations started at 8:05.

As was the case when the previous ceasefires were signed, Azerbaijan has evinced little interest in stopping the fighting while it is making progress.

Hours before the agreement was announced in Washington, Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev gave yet another fiery speech in which he promised the full restoration of Azerbaijani control over its territory, and in fact called on the military to speed up its operations. Later, he announced the recapture of Gubadli, the former capital of the district of the same name.

And immediately after the ceasefire was announced, the news website Haqqin – often used to send signals of what the government is thinking – poured cold water on the agreement.

“The unexpected interference by the State Department in no way darkened the festive mood of Azerbaijani society” following new announcements of territorial gain, its editor-in-chief, Eynulla Fatullayev, wrote. Fatullayev further accused the State Department of “distorting” the nature of the agreement, presenting it as if it were something more than a temporary pause in fighting.

More than ten hours after the ceasefire was announced, the state news agency Azertag did not have anything about it on its website’s front page. The only story on the agreement was buried under the headline “The OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs issued a statement.”

There are “many reasons to doubt it [the ceasefire] will hold,” wrote Laurence Broers, Caucasus program director at Conciliation Resources, on Twitter. “Three tests of ceasefire viability are: 1) have military goals been achieved? 2) has the cost of carrying on become prohibitive? 3) do 3rd parties have leverage to enforce? None of these conditions appears to hold.”

Azerbaijan’s military goals appear to now be the retaking of all of its territory, “or perhaps advantageous enough position to achieve this within months if winter forces a timeout,” Broers added. He noted that Aliyev’s demand to speed up operations could also suggest a “perception that there’s a window in which to do so.”

Nevertheless, diplomacy is continuing. The two foreign ministers agreed to meet on October 29 in Geneva along with the co-chairs of the Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe’s Minsk Group, the U.S.-, France-, and Russia-led body mediating the talks.

The Minsk Group issued a statement, on behalf of the co-chairs and the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan, saying that the agenda in Geneva would include not only the “immediate humanitarian ceasefire” but also “core substantive elements of a comprehensive solution. … in accordance with the basic principles accepted by the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia.”

Hopes for substantive talks may be optimistic, given the rapidly developing situation on the ground.

But the Minsk Group’s optimism had nothing on that of U.S. President Donald Trump.

Earlier on October 25, he talked about the conflict at a campaign rally in New Hampshire, prompted by seeing some fans with Armenian flags.

“Armenia. You know Armenia? We’re working on that, you know, we’re working. We did it with Kosovo and Serbia, do you believe I got three nominations for the Nobel Peace Prize, can you believe it?” he said. “Armenia, this relates to Serbia, we had Serbia-Kosovo, we had this deal and I said wait a minute these people are killing themselves, they’ve been killing each other for years and years and decades and we’re dealing with them unrelated,” Trump said.

“The problems they’ve had, with the death and the fighting, we’re going to get that straightened out. That’s going to be, I call that an easy one.”

Trump had come under fire from many Armenian-Americans as well as Joe Biden, his challenger in the upcoming election, for the U.S.’s lack of engagement in the conflict.

In the last week or so, however, U.S. officials have been talking more and more about the conflict.

On October 15, Pompeo addressed the conflict in a manner that turned off both sides, appearing to favor the Armenian side while suggesting the U.S. would do nothing to help them.  “We’re hopeful that the Armenians will be able to defend against what the Azerbaijanis are doing.,” he said. “We now have the Turks, who have stepped in and provided resources to Azerbaijan, increasing the risk, increasing the firepower that’s taking place in this historic fight.”

A few days later, though, the U.S.’s ambassador to NATO, Kay Bailey Hutchison, framed the conflict in an Azerbaijan-friendly way, focusing on keeping the current international borders. The core of the conflict, she said, was “where are the sovereign boundaries of Azerbaijan and what can accommodate the Armenian population within those boundaries?  That can be settled, and then this conflict would end.”

And in recent days Trump himself has spoken about the conflict multiple times at campaign rallies, in which he invariably praises Armenians and doesn’t even refer to Azerbaijan. Whether that is a nod to a large Armenian-American voting population, or a simple language issue, is unclear.

This story was originally published by Eurasianet Eurasianet © 2020

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India Coronavirus Cases: 22,992,517 Deaths:249,992

How to identify Fake News or Messages on Social Media 

Beware of Fake News and Fake Messages on Social Media

Always follow websites or social media platforms of traditional media outlets whether newspapers, magazines,Television News Channels or Radio Stations and authentic online only media outlets.They still maintain journalism excellence and stress on reportorial talent.On the other hand, fake news websites run by people with non journalism background and promote their own ideology with fake news and disinformations and obviously conspiracy theories.

But unfortunately mainstream media also manipulates news to establish their story angle.There were various instances when News papers and TV Channels promoted fake news/conspiracy theories in the form of out of context or manipulated pictures/videos and distorted informations.

Always check the URL of any website.Some fake news websites look like the orginal and popular one the same layout,Logo but if you check the URL you may find extra words like if the orginal website's URL is www.xxx.com the duplicate one might be www.xxx.com.co or something like that so first check the URL for authentic informations.

Check whether photos are original or photoshopped.Check Google images for authenticity.You can find help from Google Reverse Images search.

Check the news sources from other websites whether they picked up the story or not.

Whether the website layout is little bit clumsy and obviously grammatical mistakes and spelling mistakes and excessive use of Sex related and sensational and hate stories.Because sex and hate sells.

Follow official websites relating to COVID-19

WHO Clarifies the disinformation about the virus:
COVID-19 virus can be transmitted in areas with hot and humid climates
Cold Weather and Snow can not kill the new coronavirus
Taking a Hot Bath Does Not Prevent COVID-19
COVID-19 Can not be transmitted through mosquito bites

Spraying alcohol or chlorine all over your body will not kill viruses that have already entered your body. Spraying such substances can be harmful to clothes or mucous membranes (i.e. eyes, mouth)

According to World Health Organization (WHO): Regularly and thoroughly clean your hands with an alcohol-based hand rub or wash them with soap and water

Maintain at least 1 metre (3 feet) distance between yourself and anyone who is coughing or sneezing.

Avoid touching eyes, nose and mouth . If you have fever, cough and difficulty breathing, seek medical care early.

Stay at home if you begin to feel unwell, even with mild symptoms such as headache and slight runny nose, until you recover.

Follow WHO guidelines

www.who.int

When you follow COVID-19 related news and messages from social media then check and recheck it before consuming it.Follow journalism mantra: if your mother says she loves you, check it out.

Most of the messages or informations quote different organizations like WHO, UNICEF, UNDP,Cambridge University  or other well known institutes,organizations or individual to authenticate the messeges.Check official websites of these organizations  if stories are repeated there

Forwarding messages from unknown sources or little known sources, it would be better to ignore it.

Check whether any logo like UNICEF or WHO or other organizations used in the messages which look similar to original logo.

These type of messages are full of Grammatical mistakes and spelling mistakes which are quite uncommon in original messages.

Some fake messages pretend to be real one like unofficial Twitter handle of international media organizations like BBC,CNN,Washinton Post, New York Times-check the official Twitter handles of media outlets.

You can identify fake messages if the message requests you to share it.

Beware of Fake News or Fake Photos/Videos Relating to Communal Hatred

Always check the fact checking sites if you have some doubts about the authenticity of any information or picture.

www.boomlive.in

www.altnews.in

https://check4spam.com

https://smhoaxslayer.com

www.factchecker.in

www.allsides.com

www.factcheck.org

www.newsbusters.org

www.politifact.com

www.snopes.com

www.propublica.org

The Same Method Applies to You Tube Videos Check the Source the credibility of the Source.To Check Fake You Tube Videos Check and Recheck the sources. Does the person have the legal right to the video posted? Did that person capture the video? Whether it has been altered?

But due to advancement of technology we can not really wipe out fake news.According to experts advent of  Artificial Intelligence(AI) some companies small or big one developing  technologies that can  lay digitally created script to anybody's voice  even words,sentences never said by the person.Even they a.re developing a technology which can create fake video footage,images,audios like originals.So be cautious! Rumour-mongers are active everywhere whether in physical world or cyber world.

Without evidence or with fake evidence, a conspiracy theory will always remain a conspiracy theory.

For any further information relating to fake news and how-to search authentic informations from the internet write to us info@crimeandmoreworld.com or Whats App:+916289017966

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